Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks on Thursday, February 11 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Trail Blazers at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Trail Blazers 57%, with a projected score of Portland Trail Blazers 116, Dallas Mavericks 114. The rating gap is 148 points in favor of the Trail Blazers, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Trail Blazers are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.6. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Trail Blazers' best recent win was 124-83 at home against PHX.
The Trail Blazers were beaten 114-93 at home by SAS not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Shaedon Sharpe (POR), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Chris Youngblood (POR) and Branden Carlson (POR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Mavericks lead 5-2, with the Mavericks outscoring the Trail Blazers by an average of 5.9 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 100, POR 93.