Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets on Thursday, February 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hornets about a 85% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 85%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 110, Charlotte Hornets 120. The rating gap is 200 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 119 a game and allow 129. The Hornets score 102 and allow 113.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.4 for the Bucks and 115.5 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks' offense is the stronger unit against the Hornets' defense.
The Bucks have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Kon Knueppel (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Grant Williams (CHA), expected back Oct 30, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 5-2, with the Bucks outscoring the Hornets by an average of 4 points per game. The last meeting was CHA 121, MIL 122.