The edge goes to the Heat on the road against the Wizards on Wednesday, February 10, at about 62%. That is a real edge, but the Wizards are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Heat 62%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 117, Washington Wizards 114. The rating gap is 186 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 38 times in 100 games like this, the Wizards would win.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 124.7. The Wizards score 118 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.5 for the Heat and 121.4 for the Wizards, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards have been tough to score on, which should slow the Heat.
The Heat have defended better than the Wizards have scored, so the Wizards may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 7-1, with the Heat outscoring the Wizards by an average of 19 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 140, WAS 117.