New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday, February 10 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 83% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 83%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 110, Atlanta Hawks 120. The rating gap is 172 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.9 for the Pelicans and 126.4 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Hawks' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 4-0, with the Hawks outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 15.3 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 100, ATL 117.