The edge goes to the Spurs on the road against the Mavericks on Tuesday, February 9, at about 74%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 74%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 118, Dallas Mavericks 112. The rating gap is 285 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.2 for the Spurs and 112.2 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Spurs.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 6-3, with the Spurs outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 7.9 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 122, DAL 106.