Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks on Monday, February 8 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 76% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 76%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 112, Atlanta Hawks 119. The rating gap is 99 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 124.7. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109 for the Heat and 124.7 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027 and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-3, with the Heat outscoring the Hawks by an average of 8.8 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 117, MIA 143.