Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors on Saturday, February 6 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Raptors about a 85% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Raptors 85%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 110, Toronto Raptors 120. The rating gap is 201 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Raptors are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026 and Malachi Smith (TOR).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 4-3, with the Raptors outscoring the Bucks by an average of 0 points per game. The last meeting was TOR 122, MIL 94.