Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday, February 6 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 78% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 78%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 111, Minnesota Timberwolves 119. The rating gap is 119 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Timberwolves are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 4-1, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Heat by an average of 12.8 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 131, MIA 106.