The edge goes to the Mavericks at home against the Jazz on Saturday, February 6, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Jazz are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 73%, with a projected score of Utah Jazz 112, Dallas Mavericks 118. The rating gap is 71 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Jazz are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Jazz's best recent win was 147-101 at home against MEM.
The Jazz were beaten 131-107 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jusuf Nurkic (UTA), expected back Nov 4, 2026, Trey Alexander (UTA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Harrison Ingram (UTA), Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Mavericks lead 4-3, with the Mavericks outscoring the Jazz by an average of 7 points per game. The last meeting was UTA 120, DAL 138.