Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, February 5 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 93% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 93%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 107, Oklahoma City Thunder 123. The rating gap is 345 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 14 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kobe Brown (IND) and Aaron Nesmith (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 7-4, with the Thunder outscoring the Pacers by an average of 4.5 points per game. The last meeting was IND 117, OKC 114.