Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets on Friday, February 5 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hornets about a 79% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 79%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 111, Charlotte Hornets 119. The rating gap is 129 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 111.7 a game and allow 123. The Hornets score 102 and allow 113.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.7 for the Warriors and 112.5 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Brandin Podziemski (GSW) and Stephen Curry (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 4-0, with the Warriors outscoring the Hornets by an average of 20.2 points per game. The last meeting was CHA 116, GSW 136.