Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets on Thursday, February 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 84% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 84%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 110, Denver Nuggets 120. The rating gap is 194 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Cooper Flagg (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 5-3, with the Nuggets outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.3 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 135, DEN 142.