Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, February 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 82% chance, and the Magic would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 82%, with a projected score of Orlando Magic 110, San Antonio Spurs 120. The rating gap is 164 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Paolo Banchero (ORL), expected back Nov 22, 2026, and Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Anthony Black (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Magic outscoring the Spurs by an average of 0.2 points per game. The last meeting was ORL 103, SAS 112.