Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks on Thursday, February 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 81% chance, and the Raptors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 81%, with a projected score of Toronto Raptors 111, New York Knicks 120. The rating gap is 152 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Raptors are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6. The Knicks are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026 and Malachi Smith (TOR).
Day to day or questionable: Jose Alvarado (NYK). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 9-0, with the Knicks outscoring the Raptors by an average of 15.2 points per game. The last meeting was TOR 95, NYK 112.