Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat on Thursday, February 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Heat about a 79% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Heat 79%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 111, Miami Heat 119. The rating gap is 125 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 119 a game and allow 129. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 121.9 for the Bucks and 119 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the Bucks.
The Bucks have defended better than the Heat have scored, so the Heat may need to find offense elsewhere.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 5-2, with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by an average of 6.6 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 105, MIA 112.