New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards on Thursday, February 4 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Pelicans at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Pelicans 52%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 115, Washington Wizards 115. The rating gap is 113 points in favor of the Pelicans, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Wizards would win.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Wizards score 118 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.4 for the Pelicans and 123 for the Wizards, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Wizards' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Wizards have scored, so the Wizards may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pelicans lead 4-0, with the Pelicans outscoring the Wizards by an average of 16.2 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 118, NOP 138.