Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat on Tuesday, February 2 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 54%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 54%, with a projected score of Charlotte Hornets 115, Miami Heat 116. The rating gap is 75 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 46 times in 100 games like this, the Hornets would win.
Recent form
The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hornets score 102 a game and allow 113.7. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.4 for the Hornets and 111.4 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the Hornets.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Kon Knueppel (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Grant Williams (CHA), expected back Oct 30, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-4, with the Heat outscoring the Hornets by an average of 4.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 110, CHA 115.