The edge goes to the Spurs on the road against the Warriors on Monday, February 1, at about 71%. That is a real edge, but the Warriors are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 71%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 118, Golden State Warriors 112. The rating gap is 254 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 3 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Warriors score 111.7 and allow 123. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.5 for the Spurs and 111.9 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have been tough to score on, which should slow the Spurs.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 4-3, with the Warriors outscoring the Spurs by an average of 1.1 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 127, GSW 113.