Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers on Monday, February 1 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 52%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 115, Indiana Pacers 115. The rating gap is 116 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pacers on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Pacers would win.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kobe Brown (IND) and Aaron Nesmith (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pacers lead 4-3, with the Pacers outscoring the Heat by an average of 2.7 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 118, IND 135.