Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks on Monday, February 1 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 90% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 90%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 108, Atlanta Hawks 122. The rating gap is 285 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 10 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 118 a game and allow 116. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.5 for the Wizards and 120.4 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards' offense is the stronger unit against the Hawks' defense.
The Hawks should find points against the Wizards' defense, which has been giving up 116.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 5-3, with the Hawks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 7.3 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 96, ATL 126.