Our ratings lean toward the Rockets on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday, January 31, at about 64%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 64%, with a projected score of Houston Rockets 117, Dallas Mavericks 113. The rating gap is 200 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 36 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Rockets are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Rockets score 121 a game and allow 111.3. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.7 for the Rockets and 111.8 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Fred VanVleet (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Marcus Smart (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 6-3, with the Rockets outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 6 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 110, HOU 128.