Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, January 30 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 78% chance, and the Nuggets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 78%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 111, Oklahoma City Thunder 119. The rating gap is 120 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Alpha Diallo (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 10-6, with the Thunder outscoring the Nuggets by an average of 6.2 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 84, OKC 96.