Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat on Saturday, January 30 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 53%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 53%, with a projected score of Philadelphia 76ers 115, Miami Heat 115. The rating gap is 79 points in favor of the 76ers, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 47 times in 100 games like this, the 76ers would win.
Recent form
The 76ers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.8. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The 76ers were beaten 144-114 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The 76ers score 115.7 a game and allow 107.3. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.2 for the 76ers and 108.2 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the 76ers.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dominick Barlow (PHI), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ariel Hukporti (PHI), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Tacko Fall (PHI), expected back Oct 25, 2026, and LeBron James (PHI), expected back Oct 25, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jabari Walker (PHI). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-1, with the Heat outscoring the 76ers by an average of 10.3 points per game. The last meeting was PHI 109, MIA 119.