Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday, January 28 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 54%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 54%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 116, Milwaukee Bucks 115. The rating gap is 125 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Bucks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 46 times in 100 games like this, the Bucks would win.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 124.7. The Bucks score 119 and allow 129. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119 for the Heat and 121.9 for the Bucks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Heat.
The Heat have defended better than the Bucks have scored, so the Bucks may need to find offense elsewhere.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 5-2, with the Bucks outscoring the Heat by an average of 6.6 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 105, MIA 112.