Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, January 28 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 93% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 93%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 107, Oklahoma City Thunder 123. The rating gap is 356 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 14 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.2. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Zach Edey (MEM), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Cedric Coward (MEM). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 11-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 16.7 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 117, MEM 116.