The edge goes to the Timberwolves at home against the Nuggets on Wednesday, January 27, at about 65%. That is a real edge, but the Nuggets are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 65%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 113, Minnesota Timberwolves 117. The rating gap is 10 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 35 times in 100 games like this, the Nuggets would win.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Timberwolves are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Alpha Diallo (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 9-5, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Nuggets by an average of 4.4 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 98, MIN 110.