New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets on Wednesday, January 27 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 84% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 84%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 110, Houston Rockets 120. The rating gap is 188 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Rockets are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Rockets score 121 and allow 111.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118 for the Pelicans and 124.5 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Rockets' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Rockets have scored, so the Rockets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Fred VanVleet (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Marcus Smart (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 7-1, with the Rockets outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 14.5 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 134, NOP 102.