Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday, January 27 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 79% chance, and the Hornets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 79%, with a projected score of Charlotte Hornets 111, San Antonio Spurs 119. The rating gap is 125 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Hornets score 102 a game and allow 113.7. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 107 for the Hornets and 112.9 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Spurs have been tough to score on, which should slow the Hornets.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Kon Knueppel (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Grant Williams (CHA), expected back Oct 30, 2026, and Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hornets lead 3-1, with the Hornets outscoring the Spurs by an average of 1 points per game. The last meeting was CHA 102, SAS 115.