The Win Meter favors the Bulls at home against the Mavericks on Monday, January 25, at about 61%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Bulls 61%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 114, Chicago Bulls 116. The rating gap is 25 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Bulls on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 39 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Bulls are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -17.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Bulls were beaten 135-92 on the road by TOR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.3 a game and allow 118.3. The Bulls score 114.7 and allow 128. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.2 for the Mavericks and 116.5 for the Bulls, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bulls have been tough to score on, which should slow the Mavericks.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Cooper Flagg (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Mavericks lead 3-1, with the Mavericks outscoring the Bulls by an average of 6 points per game. The last meeting was CHI 128, DAL 149.