Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets on Saturday, January 23 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 87% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 87%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 109, Denver Nuggets 121. The rating gap is 234 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Alpha Diallo (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 3-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Bucks by an average of 1.8 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 102, MIL 100.