Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat on Saturday, January 23 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 50%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 50%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 114, Miami Heat 114. The rating gap is 99 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 50 times in 100 games like this, the Hawks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 124.7 for the Hawks and 109 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027 and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-3, with the Heat outscoring the Hawks by an average of 8.8 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 117, MIA 143.