The edge goes to the Pelicans at home against the Mavericks on Friday, January 22, at about 66%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Pelicans 66%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 112, New Orleans Pelicans 116. The rating gap is 14 points in favor of the Pelicans, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pelicans on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 34 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Pelicans are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Pelicans' best recent win was 156-137 at home against UTA.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Cooper Flagg (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Julian Reese (NOP). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 111, NOP 129.