Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons on Friday, January 22 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Pistons about a 89% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 89%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 107, Detroit Pistons 121. The rating gap is 271 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 9 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4. The Pistons are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Ugonna Onyenso (DET).
Day to day or questionable: Kobe Brown (IND), Aaron Nesmith (IND), Ausar Thompson (DET), and Elijah Harkless (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pistons lead 5-3, with the Pistons outscoring the Pacers by an average of 8.5 points per game. The last meeting was DET 133, IND 121.