Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets on Thursday, January 21 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 91% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 91%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 106, Denver Nuggets 121. The rating gap is 305 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9. The Nuggets are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 113-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Nuggets outscoring the Wizards by an average of 1 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 107, WAS 97.