Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday, January 20 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 84% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 84%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 108, San Antonio Spurs 118. The rating gap is 193 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Spurs are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026 and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Spurs outscoring the Heat by an average of 2 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 136, MIA 111.