Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics on Wednesday, January 20 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Celtics about a 88% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 88%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 107, Boston Celtics 119. The rating gap is 244 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4. The Celtics are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Celtics were beaten 113-97 at home by PHI not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kobe Brown (IND) and Aaron Nesmith (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 4-3, with the Celtics outscoring the Pacers by an average of 9.1 points per game. The last meeting was IND 104, BOS 119.