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Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic: preview and Win Meter

Golden State Warriors → Orlando Magic →

Our ratings lean toward the Magic at home against the Warriors on Tuesday, January 19, at about 74%. That is a real edge, but the Warriors are far from out of it.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Magic 74%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Orlando Magic 116. The rating gap is 85 points in favor of the Magic, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Magic on top of that.

A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.

Recent form

The Warriors are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8. The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4.

The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.

The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Brandin Podziemski (GSW), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.

Day to day or questionable: Charles Bassey (GSW) and Anthony Black (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 3-1, with the Warriors outscoring the Magic by an average of 6.5 points per game. The last meeting was ORL 97, GSW 120.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Warriors1-4, -8 avg margin
Magic0-5, -14.4 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • Health: 8 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Magic.

Recent meetings

  • Dec 22: ORL 97, GSW 120
  • Nov 18: GSW 113, ORL 121
  • Feb 27: GSW 121, ORL 115
  • Feb 3: ORL 99, GSW 104

Injury report

Golden State Warriors
  • Kristaps Porzingis Out · back Dec 1
  • Jimmy Butler Out · back Jan 2
  • Moses Moody Out · back Dec 1
  • Charles Bassey Questionable · back Oct 24
  • Brandin Podziemski Out · back Oct 26
Orlando Magic
  • Anthony Black Questionable · back Oct 25
  • Jonathan Isaac Out · back Oct 28
  • Izaiyah Nelson Out · back Nov 18
  • Noah Penda Out · back Nov 18
  • Paolo Banchero Out · back Nov 22

Win Meter

26%
74%
WarriorsMagic

Projected score: Warriors 110, Magic 116

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

26%
74%
WarriorsMagic

Matchup at a glance

GSWORL
Record0-20-2
Last 5LWLLLLLLLL
Points per game106.5109
Allowed per game119123.5
Days of rest––
Rating14321517

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