Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks on Monday, January 18 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 77% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 77%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 117, Dallas Mavericks 109. The rating gap is 307 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4. The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jett Howard (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 4-3, with the Thunder outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 5.6 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 100, DAL 87.