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Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets: preview and Win Meter

Orlando Magic → Denver Nuggets →

Our ratings lean toward the Nuggets at home against the Magic on Sunday, January 17, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Magic are far from out of it.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 73%, with a projected score of Orlando Magic 110, Denver Nuggets 116. The rating gap is 71 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.

A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.

Recent form

The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4. The Nuggets are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.

The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.

The Nuggets were beaten 113-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Paolo Banchero (ORL), expected back Nov 22, 2026, and Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026.

Day to day or questionable: Anthony Black (ORL) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 3-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Magic by an average of 11.3 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 126, ORL 127.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Magic0-5, -14.4 avg margin
Nuggets1-4, -9 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • Health: 7 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Nuggets.

Recent meetings

  • Dec 27: DEN 126, ORL 127
  • Dec 18: ORL 115, DEN 126
  • Feb 6: ORL 90, DEN 112
  • Jan 19: DEN 113, ORL 100

Injury report

Orlando Magic
  • Anthony Black Questionable · back Oct 25
  • Jonathan Isaac Out · back Oct 28
  • Izaiyah Nelson Out · back Nov 18
  • Noah Penda Out · back Nov 18
  • Paolo Banchero Out · back Nov 22
Denver Nuggets
  • Spencer Jones Out · back Oct 26
  • Julian Strawther Out · back Nov 29
  • Cameron Johnson Out · back Oct 26
  • Alpha Diallo Questionable · back Oct 24

Win Meter

27%
73%
MagicNuggets

Projected score: Magic 110, Nuggets 116

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

27%
73%
MagicNuggets

Matchup at a glance

ORLDEN
Record0-20-1
Last 5LLLLLLLWLL
Points per game10984
Allowed per game123.596
Days of rest––
Rating15171588

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