The edge goes to the Heat at home against the Warriors on Sunday, January 17, at about 71%. That is a real edge, but the Warriors are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Heat 71%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Miami Heat 116. The rating gap is 53 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 3 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8. The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Brandin Podziemski (GSW), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Charles Bassey (GSW) and Pelle Larsson (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 3-1, with the Heat outscoring the Warriors by an average of 8.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 112, GSW 135.