Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, January 17 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 82% chance, and the Trail Blazers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 82%, with a projected score of Portland Trail Blazers 108, Oklahoma City Thunder 118. The rating gap is 166 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Trail Blazers are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.6. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Trail Blazers' best recent win was 124-83 at home against PHX.
The Trail Blazers were beaten 114-93 at home by SAS not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Shaedon Sharpe (POR), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Chris Youngblood (POR) and Branden Carlson (POR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 7-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Trail Blazers by an average of 15.4 points per game. The last meeting was POR 95, OKC 124.