Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks on Saturday, January 16 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 91% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 91%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 106, New York Knicks 120. The rating gap is 306 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Knicks are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jett Howard (DAL) and Jose Alvarado (NYK). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Knicks by an average of 3.7 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 114, NYK 97.