Our ratings lean toward the Raptors at home against the Heat on Friday, January 15, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Heat are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Raptors 73%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 110, Toronto Raptors 116. The rating gap is 72 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2. The Raptors are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026 and Malachi Smith (TOR).
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Raptors lead 5-3, with the Raptors outscoring the Heat by an average of 5.6 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 114, TOR 128.