Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks on Friday, January 15 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 82% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 82%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 109, Atlanta Hawks 118. The rating gap is 160 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8. The Hawks are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Brandin Podziemski (GSW), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Charles Bassey (GSW), RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), and Jalen Wilson (ATL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 3-1, with the Hawks outscoring the Warriors by an average of 3.8 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 110, ATL 126.