Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons on Thursday, January 14 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Pistons about a 87% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 87%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 107, Detroit Pistons 119. The rating gap is 233 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Pistons are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jett Howard (DAL), Ausar Thompson (DET), and Jalen Duren (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Pistons outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.8 points per game. The last meeting was DET 114, DAL 116.