Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, January 13 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 79% chance, and the Rockets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 79%, with a projected score of Houston Rockets 109, Oklahoma City Thunder 117. The rating gap is 126 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Rockets are 2-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.4. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Rockets' best recent win was 115-96 at home against LAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Fred VanVleet (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Reed Sheppard (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 5-3, with the Thunder outscoring the Rockets by an average of 5.1 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 112, OKC 106.