Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday, January 12 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Grizzlies at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Grizzlies 57%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 112, Memphis Grizzlies 114. The rating gap is 49 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Grizzlies on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Grizzlies are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.2.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jett Howard (DAL) and Cedric Coward (MEM). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Grizzlies lead 7-2, with the Grizzlies outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 11.2 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 120, MEM 112.