Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat on Tuesday, January 12 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Heat about a 83% chance, and the Nets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Heat 83%, with a projected score of Brooklyn Nets 108, Miami Heat 118. The rating gap is 176 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Nets are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -16.4. The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2.
The Nets were beaten 136-101 on the road by TOR not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tyler Bilodeau (BKN), expected back Oct 25, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 5-1, with the Heat outscoring the Nets by an average of 10.2 points per game. The last meeting was BKN 110, MIA 126.