Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards on Monday, January 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 77% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 77%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 117, Washington Wizards 109. The rating gap is 309 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Wizards are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), Jalen Wilson (ATL), and AJ Dybantsa (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 5-3, with the Hawks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 7.2 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 96, ATL 126.