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Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic: preview and Win Meter

Oklahoma City Thunder → Orlando Magic →

Recent form is the story in Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic on Sunday, January 10. The Thunder have won 3 of their last 5, while the Magic have won 0.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Thunder 63%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 115, Orlando Magic 111. The rating gap is 193 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Magic on top of that.

Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 37 times in 100 games like this, the Magic would win.

The recent-form gap

The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4. The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4.

The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.

The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, and Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026.

Day to day or questionable: Anthony Black (ORL), Jonathan Isaac (ORL), and Paolo Banchero (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 4-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Magic by an average of 15.7 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 113, ORL 108.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Thunder3-2, +0.4 avg margin
Magic0-5, -14.4 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • The Thunder arrive in better form (W-L-L-W-W against L-L-L-L-L).
  • Health: 5 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Magic.

Recent meetings

  • Mar 17: OKC 113, ORL 108
  • Feb 3: ORL 92, OKC 128
  • Dec 19: OKC 105, ORL 99
  • Nov 4: ORL 86, OKC 102

Injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Thomas Sorber Out · back Oct 26
  • Nikola Topic Out · back Oct 26
  • Otega Oweh Out · back Jul 1
Orlando Magic
  • Anthony Black Day to day · back Oct 25
  • Jonathan Isaac Day to day · back Oct 25
  • Izaiyah Nelson Out · back Nov 18
  • Noah Penda Out · back Nov 18
  • Paolo Banchero Day to day · back Oct 25

Win Meter

63%
37%
ThunderMagic

Projected score: Thunder 115, Magic 111

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

63%
37%
ThunderMagic

Matchup at a glance

OKCORL
Record2-00-2
Last 5WLLWWLLLLL
Points per game106109
Allowed per game94123.5
Days of rest––
Rating17101517

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